Reporter's Notebook: House math turns tricky as Greene resignation tightens GOP grip on power

It's about the math.

And the math in the House of Representatives got much more interesting Friday night when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., announced she would resign in January.

The six-seat margin means that the GOP can only lose two votes on the floor and still pass a bill without help from the Democrats.

But the math in the coming weeks and months quickly gets dicey for the GOP.

Greene does not step aside until Jan. 5. So let's run through the numbers and permutations which could evolve over the next few months.

There's a special election in Tennessee to succeed former House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green on Dec. 2. President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points last fall. Green bested his opponent - former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry, a Democrat, by 21 points. So Republicans are expected to hold this seat.

But there is something important to know about special elections: they're special. They sometimes produce weird results because the usual voting electorate doesn't show up. Plus, surges by one party or the other in a special election held in either a deeply blue or ruby red district sometimes signals a boost for the party. Strong performances or even upsets sometimes portend what's ahead in the next election. They also signal a referendum on the President.

Even though Democrats failed to flip any of those seats, they made the GOP sweat and put up strong showings. Some analysts viewed the Democrats' performances in those contests as a sign of things to come in the 2018 midterms and President Trump's weakness.

Democrats then reclaimed control of the House in the 2018 midterms and won 40 seats.

Republican Matt Van Epps faces Democrat Aftyn Behn next week in the special election to succeed Green in Tennessee. Democrats are pouring money into that contest hoping they can flip the seat.

But that only lasts until Greene steps down in January. So the majority would dwindle to 219-213.

Remember that you cannot appoint someone to the House. So you have to wait for special elections. The Georgia special election to succeed Greene wouldn't happen until March.

But there's lots to happen before then.

So, presuming Van Epps wins, and with Greene gone and either Democrats Amanda Edwards or Christian Menefee winning the Turner seat in Texas, the GOP majority dips to 219-214. It's a margin of five. But again, Republicans can only lose two votes and not need help from the other side.

Now we're back to a special election in March for Greene's seat. Again, Democrats will try to make that competitive. But for the sake of argument, let's say the GOP wins. The Republican majority climbs to 220-214.

This scenario presumes both parties win everything they're supposed to win.

But what happens if Democrats were to flip the open seats in Tennessee and Georgia and win the special elections in Texas and New Jersey? In that scenario, you're looking at a 218-217 Republican majority next spring.

Again, we're positing that no one dies or retires mid-term.

The House is not a very pleasant place to be right now. That's why some lawmakers may look for the exits early.

And, there's an old saying that "death will come. And it's always out of season."

Sylvester Turner was a freshman Democrat and had been a Member of the House for barely two months. He attended President Trump's State of the Union speech in early March. Turner died overnight.

Grijalva had suffered from cancer for years. He died eight days after Turner. By spring, late Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., died from cancer - just months after becoming the top Democrat on the Oversight Committee.

The late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Texas, died in July and was succeeded by her daughter, Rep. Erica Lee Carter.

The Senate majority has flipped a couple of times in the middle of Congress. The House majority has never switched in the middle of Congress. That may not be the case now. But the tenuous hold on power for the GOP has been the story of the House since the 2022 midterms. It's one of the tightest majorities in history. And it wouldn't take much to shift power.