Slain Iranian nuclear scientists raises alarm over uranium, expertise reaching black market

The killing of Iranian nuclear scientists in U.S.-Israeli military strikes has raised fears that, if the regime destabilizes, weakened control over uranium stockpiles and the spread of nuclear expertise could increase proliferation risks.

While Iran can replace its lost personnel, experts say the lost expertise will be harder to rebuild and undisclosed sites in the country may also leave dangerous materials and knowledge vulnerable.

"Non-state actors would face challenges in accessing enriched uranium, and it is unlikely they would have the infrastructure to enrich it to weapons-grade levels and convert it into the metallic form required for a warhead core," she said.

"However, if the current Iranian government implodes or the conflict causes significant internal instability, there is an increased risk that nuclear materials will be stolen or diverted to undeclared sites."

"There is also a risk that Iranian nuclear scientists may be willing to sell their expertise to states or non-state actors seeking nuclear weapons," Davenport said in a new report.

Among them is Hossein Jabal Amelian, head of the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), who was killed in 2026 during Operation Rising Lion and Operation Epic Fury.

SPND is seen as the successor to Iran's pre-2004 nuclear weapons program and plays a key role in new weaponization research.

Others killed in 2025 include Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, Akbar Motallebizadeh and Said Borji, all linked to weaponization work.

"Many key scientists involved in suspected weaponization work were killed in 2025 and 2026."

"Their successors may also fear being targeted in the future, whether by military strikes or assassination. That could affect their motivation and willingness to participate in any nuclear weapons program."

Lamson also said many of those targeted were embedded in sensitive areas of Iran's nuclear work, including the fuel cycle and weaponization.

"These scientists had expertise in areas of the nuclear fuel cycle of key concern for nuclear weapons, including the production of highly enriched uranium (HEU), which was Iran's main pathway for fissile material," he said.

"The scientists also had expertise in weaponization - that is, in key aspects of the design and production of nuclear explosive devices," Lamson added.

"We have identified at least 11 weaponization-related sites that have been hit since 2024," Lamson said.

"These include SPND headquarters, a newly identified site called Min-Zadayi in northeast Tehran, SPND's Taleghan and Sanjarian explosives testing sites, the Defense Ministry's Shahid Meisami complex in western Tehran and several research universities."

These facilities were all involved in neutronics, explosives, metallurgy and nuclear physics - all tied to nuclear weapons development, he said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi also said it remains "under the rubble" of previous strikes and that Tehran has no plans to recover it.

"It is always possible that Iran has additional sites that were not known to Israel and the U.S.," Lamson said.

"We will have to wait to see how much these operations translate into a lasting strategic impact on Iran's ability to produce nuclear weapons."