Iraq War flashbacks? Experts say Trump's Iran buildup signals pressure campaign, not regime change

In early 2003, the United States assembled more than 300,000 U.S. personnel in the region, backed by roughly 1,800 coalition aircraft and multiple Army and Marine divisions staged in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia ahead of Operation Iraqi Freedom. The force was built for invasion, regime removal and occupation.

"I believe there is absolutely no intention to put ground forces into Iran. So, the buildup is very different," retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, former NATO supreme allied commander of Europe, told Fox News Digital.

"What is happening is that both firepower and supplies are being moved to the right places. … Amateurs talk tactics; professionals talk logistics. And right now we are getting logistics right, not only in the form of shooters but supplies to sustain an effort," he said.

John Spencer, executive director of the Urban Warfare Institute, told Fox News Digital, "The strategic objective in both cases is coercion, shaping an adversary's decision calculus through visible military power. But while the scale of the buildup may appear comparable, what is being mobilized and threatened is fundamentally different.

If ordered, he said, operations "would very likely be broad in scope against a range of targets like the ruling clerical establishment, senior officials in the IRGC, key ballistic missile and drone production, storage and launch facilities and elements of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, and last for days if not longer."

Breedlove said the incremental deployment of carriers and air assets appears designed to increase pressure, not trigger immediate war.

"We brought in one carrier battle group that did not change the rhetoric in Iran. … So, now the president has started sailing a second carrier battle group to the area. I think all of these things are increasing the pressure slowly on Iran to help them come to the right decision. … 'Let's sit down at the table and figure this out.'"

Ali emphasized another major difference with legal authority and coalition structure. The 2003 Iraq War was authorized by congressional authorization for use of military force and backed by a large international coalition, including tens of thousands of British troops. 

"Currently, no similar AUMF has been approved by Congress for military operations against Iran, which might mean President Trump may invoke his standing authority under Article II of the U.S. Constitution as commander in chief as a substitute legal basis, given the threats Iran poses to the United States," Ali said.

Breedlove pointed to lessons learned from Iraq. 

"We want to have a clear set of objectives. … We do not want to enter an endless sort of battle with Iran. … We need to have a plan for what's day plus one," he said, warning against repeating past mistakes where military success was not matched by post-conflict planning.

The force now in place is optimized for air superiority, long-range precision strikes and sustained naval operations, not for seizing and holding territory. Whether that posture succeeds in compelling Iran back to negotiations without crossing into open conflict may depend less on numbers than on how each side calculates the cost of escalation.