Conclave 'very, very different' from US elections; 'anything could happen', according to expert

A conclave, organized by the camerlengo, presently Cardinal Kevin Ferrell, begins 15 to 20 days after the pope's death.

Pope Francis, the 266th pontiff, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, died on April 21, 2025, after 12 years as the Bishop of Rome.

"We really don't have much of an idea," he said of Pope Francis' successor. "I think anybody who says otherwise is maybe posturing."

Among the church leaders floated as the candidates-in-waiting are Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo and American Cardinal Raymond Burke.

"We've got a group of people who play important roles in the church throughout the world, and they're coming together, spending time together, and this group of cardinals hasn't spent a lot of time together," Gabrielli added.

Pope Francis created over 100 cardinals, including those from developing countries.

"Christ is to be found at the margins," Gabrielli said.

"It's very tempting to map folks into our political categories," Gabrielli said. "Those just don't work very well in the Church. There are different emphases and priorities."

"This is a very, very different process," he added.

The College of Cardinals elected Pope Francis in 2013 when he was 76 years old. At the time, the former pontiff was not considered one of the top cardinal contenders.

Some Catholics regarded the former leader of the Church as "non-traditional" and often criticized his sometimes progressive approach to world leadership.

During his 12-year papacy, Pope Francis' took affinity to the expansion of equality in the Catholic Church, which included pathways for divorced Catholics and blessings for same-sex couples.

"My read is that he had certain particular processes and structures that he was very interested in setting into motion, like the work on synodality more recently," Gabrielli said.

"He was kind of picking up that momentum," Gabrielli said. "There's really a thread you see happening there."

Presently, there are 252 living cardinals. However, only top members of the church under the age of 80 are eligible to vote. A maximum of 120 cardinal electors make up the voting college.

The limit was set by Pope John Paul VI in 1975.

"I think it's possible that someone could be seen as close to Pope Francis," Gabrielli said of the next pope. "I think it's possible for someone to be elected who has a different set of priorities than Pope Francis."