2026 NBA Playoffs: Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers best bet, odds, prediction

OKC has won every game this series by 18+ points and has a seven-game winning streak over LA. That's despite reigning NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander not putting up his typical crazy numbers.

Shai is scoring only 21.0 points per game in this series, slightly behind Thunder big man Chet Holmgren's 21.3 PPG average, which leads the team.

Maybe the sweep is a foregone conclusion, like the New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers series, but I'm counting on the Lakers dying on their sword and going out with honor.

Los Angeles held a first-half lead in Games 2 and 3 and still lost by 18 and 23 points, respectively. Granted, perhaps that's just OKC playing with its food more than anything the Lakers are doing right.

Still, it's something for L.A. to build on.

The Lakers are hitting 39.3% of their 3-pointers in this series. Unfortunately for them, the Thunder are shooting 42.3% from behind the arc.

But Oklahoma City's role players are doing most of the damage from deep. Thunder guards Jared McCain, Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe, along with big man Jaylin Williams, are a combined 25 for 41 from 3-point range, good for a ridiculous 61.0%.

That's not sustainable.

If these randoms hit fewer shots in Game 4, the Lakers can cover the spread.

Finally, 95% of the money at BetMGM is on Oklahoma City as of Monday morning, according to John Ewing.

While I'm not someone who bows at the altar of betting splits, 95% of people don't beat the sportsbooks. We all know this.

I know that's simple logic, but if you blindly fade teams this popular in the betting market, you'll probably have a positive return on investment.

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